Yıl 2018, Cilt 22, Sayı 1, Sayfalar 24 - 38 2018-02-01

Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks
İstatistiksel metotlar ve yapay sinir ağları kullanarak kısa dönem çok adımlı rüzgâr hızı tahmini

İsmail Kırbaş [1]

287 363

The results of the observations made by TUBITAK T60 national observation house meteorological station in April, 2016 were compiled on this website using the PHP programming language. Obtained wind speed data were analysed using statistical and artificial neural network methods and predicted wind speed predictions over the time series brought to the field. There is a significant difference in error rates between the ARIMA models and the artificial neural networks examined as a result of comparisons with the calculated calculations and actual data. While the wind speed estimation studies in the literature generally focus only on single step prediction success, detailed evaluation of commonly used estimation methods at the prospective 12 step level has been carried out.

Bu çalışmada TÜBİTAK T60 ulusal gözlem evi meteoroloji istasyonunun 2016 yılı nisan ayı içerisinde yaptığı gözlem sonuçları PHP programlama dili kullanılarak web sitesi üzerinden derlenmiştir. Elde edilen rüzgâr hızı verileri istatistiksel ve yapay sinir ağı metotları kullanılarak incelenmiş ve meydana getirilen zaman serisi üzerinden ileriye yönelik rüzgâr hızı kestirimlerinde bulunulmuştur. Yapılan hesaplamalar ve gerçek veriler ile kıyaslamalar sonucunda incelenen ARIMA modelleri ve yapay sinir ağları arasında belirgin bir hata oranı farkı görülmüştür. Literatürde yer alan rüzgâr hızı tahmin çalışmaları genellikle sadece tek adım tahmin başarısı üzerinde yoğunlaşırken, önerilen çalışmada sık kullanılan tahmin metotlarının ileriye dönük 12 adım seviyesinde ayrıntılı değerlendirilmeleri gerçekleştirilmiştir.

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Konular Bilgisayar Mühendisliği ve Bilişim
Yayımlanma Tarihi Şubat 2018
Dergi Bölümü Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0002-1206-8294
Yazar: İsmail Kırbaş
E-posta: ismkir@gmail.com
Kurum: Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü
Ülke: Turkey


Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { saufenbilder305224, journal = {Sakarya University Journal of Science}, issn = {1301-4048}, address = {Sakarya Üniversitesi}, year = {2018}, volume = {22}, pages = {24 - 38}, doi = {10.16984/saufenbilder.305224}, title = {Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks}, key = {cite}, author = {Kırbaş, İsmail} }
APA Kırbaş, İ . (2018). Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks. Sakarya University Journal of Science, 22 (1), 24-38. DOI: 10.16984/saufenbilder.305224
MLA Kırbaş, İ . "Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks". Sakarya University Journal of Science 22 (2018): 24-38 <http://www.saujs.sakarya.edu.tr/issue/30795/305224>
Chicago Kırbaş, İ . "Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks". Sakarya University Journal of Science 22 (2018): 24-38
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks AU - İsmail Kırbaş Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.16984/saufenbilder.305224 DO - 10.16984/saufenbilder.305224 T2 - Sakarya University Journal of Science JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 24 EP - 38 VL - 22 IS - 1 SN - 1301-4048-2147-835X M3 - doi: 10.16984/saufenbilder.305224 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.305224 Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Sakarya University Journal of Science Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks %A İsmail Kırbaş %T Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks %D 2018 %J Sakarya University Journal of Science %P 1301-4048-2147-835X %V 22 %N 1 %R doi: 10.16984/saufenbilder.305224 %U 10.16984/saufenbilder.305224